mcm2001C Our Waterways-An Uncertain Future 我们的水系-不确定的前景 - matlab数学建模

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标题：mcm2001C Our Waterways-An Uncertain Future 我们的水系-不确定的前景
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所属分类: 数学建模资源类型：文档文件大小: 34.58 KB 上传时间: 2019-08-19 20:44:58 下载次数: 86 资源积分：1分提供者: jiqiren 20190819084650877

内容：
(MCM 2001C)

Zebra mussels, Dreissena polymorpha, are small, fingernail-sized, freshwater mollusks unintentionally introduced to North America via ballast water from a transoceanic vessel. Since their introduction in the mid 1980s, they have spread through all of the Great Lakes and to an increasing number of inland waterways in the United States and Canada. Zebra mussels colonize on various surfaces, such as docks, boat hulls, commercial fishing nets, water intake pipes and valves, native mollusks and other zebra mussels. Their only known predators, some diving ducks, freshwater drum, carp, and sturgeon, are not numerous enough to have a significant effect on them. Zebra mussels have significantly impacted the Great Lakes ecosystem and economy. Many communities are trying to control or eliminate these aquatic pests. SOURCE: Great Lakes Sea Grant Network http://www.sgnis.org/.

Researchers are attempting to identify the environmental variables related to the zebra mussel infestation in North American waterways. The relevant factors that may limit or prevent the spread of the zebra mussel are uncertain. You will have access to some reference data to include listings of several chemicals and substances in the water system that may affect the spread of the zebra mussel throughout waterways. Additionally, you can assume individual zebra mussels grow at a rate of 15 millimeters per year with a life span between 4-6 years. The typical mussel can filter 1 liter of water each day.

Requirement A: Discuss environmental factors that could influence the spread of zebra mussels.

Requirement B: Utilizing the chemical data provided at: xls file and the mussel population data provided at: xls file model the population growth of zebra mussels in Lake A. Be sure to review the Information about the collection of the zebra mussel data.

Requirement C: Utilizing additional data on Lake A from another scientist provided at: xls file

and additional mussel population data provided at: xls file corroborate the reasonableness of your model from Requirement B. As a result of this additional data, adjust your earlier model. Analyze the performance of your model. Discuss the sensitivity of your model.

Requirement D: Utilizing the Chemical data from two lakes (Lake B and Lake C) in the United States provided at xls file and xls file determine if these lakes are vulnerable to the spread of zebra mussels. Discuss your prediction.

Requirement E: The community in the vicinity of Lake B (in requirement D) is considering specific policies for the de-icing of roadways near the lake during the winter season. Provide guidance to the local government officials regarding a policy on e-icing agents. In your guidance include predictions on the long-term impact of de-icing on the zebra mussel population.

Requirement F: It has been recommended by a local community in the United States to introduce round goby fish. Zebra mussels are not often eaten by native fish species so they represent a dead end ecologically. However, round gobies greater than 100 mm feed almost exclusively on zebra mussels. Ironically, because of habitat destruction, the goby is endangered in its native habitat of the Black and Caspian Seas in Russia. In addition to your technical report, include a carefully crafted report (3-page maximum) written explicitly for the local community leaders that responds to their recommendation to introduce the round goby. Also suggest ways to help reduce the growth of the mussel within and among waterways.

Information about the collection of the zebra mussel data

The developmental state of the Zebra mussel is categorized by three stages: veligers (larvae), settling juveniles, and adults. Veligers (microscopic zebra mussel larvae) are free-swimming, suspended in the water for one to three weeks, after which they begin searching for a hard surface to attach to and begin their adult life. Looking for zebra mussel veligers is difficult because they are not easily visible by the naked eye. Settled juvenile zebra mussels can be felt on smooth surfaces like boats and motors. An advanced zebra mussel infestation can cover a surface, even forming thick mats sometimes reaching very high densities. The density of juveniles was determined along the lake using three 15×15 cm settling plates. The top plate remained in the water for the entire sampling season (S - seasonal) to estimate seasonal accumulation. The middle and bottom plates are collected after specific periods (A-alternating ) of time denoted by “Lake Days” in the data files.

The settling plates are placed under the microscope and all juveniles on the undersides of the plate are counted and densities are reported as juveniles/m2.

我们的水系-不确定的前景(美国竞赛2001年C题)

斑马贻贝，Dreissena polymorpha，是指甲般大小的淡水软体动物，经由越洋货轮的压舱水不留意引入北美。自上个世纪80年代中期引入以来，它们已经遍布五大湖并且扩展到越来越多的美国和加拿大内陆水系。斑马贻贝依附在各种表面上，诸如码头，船壳，商用鱼网，吸水管和阀门，本地软体动物和其他斑马贻贝。它们的为人所知的天敌，某些潜水鸭，淡水鹧鸪，鲤鱼，以及鲟鱼，没有足够的数量对他们产生重大的影响。斑马贻贝已经严重地冲击五大湖生态系统和经济。许多社区正在设法控制或者消灭这些水生害虫。原始资料：Great Lakes Sea Grant Network这里。

研究人员正在试图分辨与斑马贻贝在北美水系蔓延有关的环境变数。可以限制或阻止斑马贻贝扩展的相关因素是不确定的。你可以查阅若干参考数据，包括供水系统中一些化学药品和物质的列表，这些或许对斑马贻贝在各个水系的扩展产生影响。此外，你可以假定，单独的斑马贻贝每年都能生长15毫米，生命期介于4-6年之间。常见的贻贝每天吞吐1升水。

要求A: 研讨可能影响斑马贻贝扩展的环境因素。

要求B: 利用化学数据，提供在：xls 和贻贝增殖数据，提供在： xls. 对于斑马贻贝在湖泊A中的数量增长建立模型。要保证熟读有关收集斑马贻贝数据的说明。

要求C: 利用来自另一位科学家的关于湖泊A的附加数据，提供在： xls 和附加的贻贝增殖数据，提供在： xls 证实你依据要求B所建模型的合理性。借助于这个附加数据，调整你的前面的模型。分析你的模型的效能，讨论它的灵敏度。

要求D: 利用来自美国两个湖泊（湖泊B和湖泊C）的化学数据，提供在： xls和xls. 确定这些湖泊是否易受斑马贻贝扩展的损害。论述你的预言。

要求E: 临近湖泊B（见要求D）的社区正在考虑在接近湖泊的路面上采取特殊冬季除冰政策。请为当地政府官员就有关除冰化学制剂政策编写一个工作指导。在你的工作指导中，要对冬季除冰给予斑马贻贝增殖的长期冲击申明你的预见。

要求F: 美国的一个当地社区提议引进刺鳍鱼。斑马贻贝较少被当地鱼类吃掉，所以，它们就在生态上充当了一种终结者。但是，100mm以上的刺鳍鱼几乎唯一地以斑马贻贝为食。具有讽刺意味的是，由于栖息地破坏，刺鳍鱼在俄罗斯黑海和里海的原始栖息地中面临危险。除了你的技术报告以外，请包括一个特地为当地社区领导编写的言简意赅的报告（至多三页），对他们引进刺鳍鱼的提议作出反应。也要建议多种方法在各个水系内和水系之间降低贻贝的增殖。

有关收集斑马贻贝数据的说明

斑马贻贝的发育状态划分成三个阶段: 面盘幼体（幼虫），沉积幼体和成年贻贝。面盘幼体（极细微的斑马贻贝幼虫）悬浮在水中漂来荡去一到三个星期，尔后开始寻找硬的行将依附的表面并且开始它们的成年生活。查看斑马贻贝幼虫是困难的，因为它们不易单凭裸眼看清楚。沉积幼体贻贝可以在船只和汽艇一类光滑表面上摸到。年深日久的斑马贻贝侵扰会覆盖一个表面，甚至形成厚厚的垫子，有时达到很高的密度。沉积贻贝的密度由安放在湖泊中的三块 15×15 cm沉积板来测定。顶上的板在整个取样季节（S-季节性的）中都留在水中以便评估季节累积。中间和底下两块板在经过特定时间段（A-替换性的）以后取走待查，这个时间段在数据文件中由Lake Days表示。沉积板被放在显微镜下，而且，在板的下表面上所有沉积贻贝被计数，尔后在贻贝/m2单位下完成密度报告。

各类数据存放在无格式xls文件中: LakeAChem1of.xls, LakeAPopulation1.xls, LakeAChem2of.xls, LakeAPopulation2.xls, LakeB.XLS, LakeC.XLS

文件列表（点击上边下载按钮，如果是垃圾文件请在下面评价差评或者投诉）:

mcm2001C Our Waterways-An Uncertain Future 我们的水系-不确定的前景 .doc