mcm2010C The great Pacific ocean garbage patch 泛太平洋垃圾带 - matlab数学建模

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标题：mcm2010C The great Pacific ocean garbage patch 泛太平洋垃圾带
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所属分类: 数学建模资源类型：文档文件大小: 4.91 KB 上传时间: 2019-08-19 19:41:41 下载次数: 77 资源积分：1分提供者: jiqiren 20190819074243145

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(MCM 2010C)

Recently, there has been considerable news coverage of the "Great Pacific Ocean Garbage Patch." See the following:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/10/science/10patch.html?em

http://www.sciencefriday.com/program/archives/200907314

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE57R05E20090828

Based on recent scientific expeditions into the Pacific Ocean Gyre (a convergence zone where debris is accumulating), a wide variety of technical and scientific problems associated with this debris mass are coming to light. While dumping waste into the ocean is not a new activity, the scientific community's realization that much of the debris (plastics, in particular) are accumulating in high densities over a large area of the Pacific Ocean is new. The scientific community also is learning that this debris creates many potential threats to marine ecology, and, therefore, to human well-being. Those who study this accumulation often describe it as plastic soup or confetti.

See: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/photogalleries/pacific-garbage-patch-pictures/

This year's ICM problem uses interdisciplinary modeling to addresses the complex issues stemming from the presence and accumulation of ocean debris, in order to help researchers and ultimately government policy makers to understand the severity, range, and potential global impact of the situation.

As modeling advisors to the expedition, your job is to focus on one element of this debris problem, model and analyze its behavior, and determine its potential effect on marine ecology and the government policies and practices that should be implemented to ameliorate its negative effects. Be sure to consider needs for future scientific research and the economic aspects of the problem, and then write a report to your expedition leader summarizing your findings and proposals for solutions and needed policies and practices. Some of the possible issues/questions you could investigate with your model include:

1. What are the potential short- and long-term effects of the plastic on the ocean environment? What kind of monitoring is required to track the impact on the marine ecosystem? Be sure to account for temporal and spatial variability. What are the associated resourcing requirements?

2. How can the extent, density and distribution of the plastic in the gyre be best understood and described? What kind of monitoring plan is required to track the growth/decay/movement of the plastics, and what kind of resourcing is required to implement that plan?

3. What is the nature or mechanism of the photodegradation of the plastic and its composition as it enters the ocean and accumulates in the gyre? (For example, we are amazed to find that the particles of degraded plastic tend to reach a similar size.)

4. Where does the plastic come from and what steps can be taken to control or reduce the risks associated with this situation? What are the economic costs and the economic benefits of controlling or ending the situation, and how do they compare? How much plastic is manufactured, discarded, and recycled? How much of that is likely to go into the ocean? How much of that is likely to float?

5. Could similar situations develop in other places in the oceans? What should we monitor and how? What is happening in the North Atlantic Gyre and the Alaskan Gyre? Use your model to estimate the plastic density in the future in the southern gyres (South Atlantic, South Pacific)?

6. What is the immediate impact of banning polystyrene takeout containers? (See: http://bit.ly/5koJHB) What is the impact over 10–50 years?

7. Any other scientific/technological issue associated with this situation is also acceptable, as long as modeling is an important component of your investigation and analysis.

To clarify your task, focus on one critical aspect of this problem and model the behavior of the important matters or phenomena. Specify the quantities that are of greatest present or future interest to the one aspect you choose to model and analyze. Your ICM report should be in the form of a ten-page team report to an expedition leader who has asked you to help her identify the relevant behaviors of the matters and phenomena under consideration, provide the analysis for impact of the behavior of those matters or phenomena, and advise her on the government's potential to act on the problem to improve this situation before it worsens.

泛太平洋垃圾带(美国竞赛2010年C题)

最近,已经有很多新闻报道“泛太平洋垃圾带”。看看以下的网址：

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/10/science/10patch.html?em

http://www.sciencefriday.com/program/archives/200907314

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE57R05E20090828

最近的一项深入太平洋涡旋（垃圾碎片不断累积的汇流地带）进行的科学探险，揭露出大量与处理这些垃圾碎片相关的科技问题。倾倒废弃物流入海洋不是新鲜事，但是科学界却首次发现这些垃圾碎片（尤其是塑料制品）在太平洋领域中密集出现。科学界同时也发现这些垃圾碎片对海洋生态，对人类的福祉都带来了许多潜在威胁。研究者把这些塑料垃圾描述成塑料汤或是塑料彩屑。

可查看http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/photogalleries/pacific-garbage-patch-pictures/。

今年ICM的问题是利用跨学科建模，来解决由于海洋中垃圾存在与累积所带来的各种复杂问题，借此帮助研究者，最终帮助政府政策制定者来了解该问题的程度、范围和对全球潜在的影响。

作为科学探险的建模顾问，你的任务是要关注垃圾问题中的某一个因素，建立模型并分析它的性质，确定其对影响海洋生态、政府政策的潜在影响，以及改善它的负面影响的具体措施。一定要考虑未来科研的需求和这一问题的经济因素，然后给科学探险的领队写一份报告，总结你的研究发现，提出解决建议、需要制定的政策和采取的措施。以下是你可以建模研究的一些问题:

1.海洋中的塑料垃圾有哪些潜在的短期或长期影响？需要何种监测来追踪它对海洋生态系统的影响？务必要说明时空变异性。有哪些相关的资源需求？

2.如何才能让涡旋中塑料垃圾的广度、密度、分布情况得到最佳理解和描述？需要何种监测计划来追踪塑料垃圾的增加、减/运动，要实施该监测计划需要哪些资源？

3.当这些塑料垃圾进入海洋并在涡旋中累积之后，它组成成分的的光降解机理是什么？（比如说我们惊讶地发现了降解塑料的粒子最终会达到相似的大小。）

4.这些塑料从何处来？可以采取什么步骤来控制或减少与这一情况相关的各种风险？经济成本如何？控制或结束这种状态会带来什么经济效益？如何比较成本与效益？有多少塑料被生产，丢弃与回收？有多少有可能被排入海洋？进入海洋的又有多少可能会到处漂浮？

5.同样的情况会在海洋的其他地方发生吗？我们应当监控那些因素，应该如何监控？北大西洋洋流和阿拉斯加洋流目前的情况如何？使用你的模型来预测一下南部洋流（南大西洋，南太平洋）未来的塑料垃圾密度。

6.禁用聚丙烯外卖食品包装的即时效果如何？参考http://bit.ly/5koJHB。十到五十年后的远期效果又如何？

7.只要你主要依靠建模的方式来进行分析，也可以探讨其他一些同该情况相关的科学和技术问题。

为了明确你的任务，重点应该集中在问题的某个重要方面，对重要的问题和现象的表现进行建模分析，对你选择进行建模和分析的那个方面当中对当前和未来影响最显著的因素进行定量分析。你的ICM 报告应以如下形式提交：它将是篇幅为10页的小组报告，提交给一位调查负责人，目的在于帮助她找出所探讨问题或现象的相关表现，主要分析这些问题或者现象的后果，并针对在问题进一步恶化之前政府能够采取哪些措施来遏制该问题向她提出可行性建议。

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mcm2010C The great Pacific ocean garbage patch 泛太平洋垃圾带 .doc