With hundreds of thousands of refugees moving across Europe and more arriving each day, considerable attention has been given to refugee integration policies and practices in many countries and regions. History has shown us that mass fleeing of populations occur as a result of major political and social unrest and warfare. These crises bring a set of unique challenges that must be managed carefully through effective policies. Events in the Middle East have caused a massive surge of refugees emigrating from the Middle East into safe haven countries in Europe and parts of Asia, often moving through the Mediterranean and into countries such as Turkey, Hungary, Germany, France, and UK. By the end of October 2015, European countries had received over 715,000 asylum applications from refugees. Hungary topped the charts with nearly 1,450 applications per 100,000 inhabitants, but with only a small percentage of those requests granted (32% in 2014), leaving close to a thousand refugees homeless per every 100K residents of the country. Europe has established a quota system where each country has agreed to take in a particular number of refugees, with the majority of the resettlement burden lying with France and Germany. 

 

The refugees travel multiple routes – from the Middle East through (1) West Mediterranean, (2) Central Mediterranean, (3) Eastern Mediterranean, (4) West Balkans, (5) Eastern Borders, and (6) Albania to Greece (See these routes mapped out in http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911). Each route has different levels of safety and accessibility, with the most popular route being Eastern Mediterranean and the most dangerous, Central Mediterranean. Countries that have been burdened the most are concerned about their capacity to provide resources for the refugees such as food, water, shelter, and healthcare. There are numerous factors that determine how the refugees decide to move through the region. Transportation availability, safety of routes and access to basic needs at destination are considered by each individual or family in this enormous migration. 

 

The UN has asked your team, the ICM-RUN (RefUgee aNalytics) to help develop a better understanding of the factors involved with facilitating the movement of refugees from their countries of origin into safe-haven countries. 

 

Your Specific Tasks: 

 

Metrics of refugee crises. Determine the specific factors which can either enable or inhibit the safe and efficient movement of refugees. There are attributes of the individuals themselves, the routes they must take, the types of transportation, the countries’ capacity, including number of entry points and resources available to refugee population. This first task requires ICM-RUN to develop a set of measures and parameters and justify why they should be included in the analysis of this crisis. 

Flow of refugees. Create a model of optimal refugee movement that would incorporate projected flows of refugees across the six travel routes mentioned in the problem, with consideration of transportation routes/accessibility, safety of route and countries’ resource capacities. You can include different routes, different entry points, single or multiple entry points, and even different countries. Use the metrics that you established in Task 1 to determine the number of refugees, as well as the rate and point of entry necessary to accommodate their movement. Be sure to justify any new elements you have added to the migration and explain the sensitivities of your model to these dynamics. 

Dynamics of the crisis. Refugee conditions can change rapidly. Refugees seek basic necessities for themselves and their families in the midst of continuously changing political and cultural landscapes. In addition, the capacity to house, protect, and feed this moving population is dynamic in that the most desired destinations will reach maximum capacity the quickest, creating a cascade effect altering the parameters for the patterns of movement. Identify the environmental factors that change over time; and show how capacity can be incorporated into the model to account for these dynamic elements. What resources can be prepositioned and how should they be allocated in light of these dynamics? What resources need priority and how do you incorporate resource availability and flow in your model? Consider the role and resources of both government and non-government agencies (NGOs). How does the inclusion of NGO’s change your model and strategy? Also consider the inclusion of other refugee destinations such as Canada, China, and the United States. Does your model work for these regions as well? 

Policy to support refugee model. Now that you have a working model, ICM-RUN has been asked to attend a policy strategy meeting where your team is asked to write a report on your model and propose a set of policies that will support the optimal set of conditions ensuring the optimal migration pattern. Your UN commission has asked you to consider and prioritize the health and safety of refugees and of the local populations. You can include as many parameters and considerations as you see fit to help to inform the strategic policy plan, keeping in mind the laws and cultural constraints of the effected countries. Consider also the role and actions of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). 

Exogenous events. In addition to endogenous systemic dynamics, exogenous events are also highly likely to occur and alter the situation parameters in these volatile environments, For example, a major terrorist attack in Paris, France has been linked to the Syrian refuge crisis, and has resulted in substantial shifts in the attitudes and policies of many European countries with respect to refugees. The event has also raised concerns among local populations. For example, Brussels, Belgium was placed in a lockdown after the Paris raids in attempts to capture possible terrorists. 

What parameters of the model would likely shift or change completely in a major exogenous event? 

What would be the cascading effects on the movement of refugees in neighboring countries? 

How will the immigration policies that you recommend be designed to be resilient to these types of events? 

Scalability. Using your model, expand the crisis to a larger scale – by a factor of 10. Are there features of your model that are not scalable to larger populations? What parameters in your model change or become irrelevant when the scope of the crisis increases dramatically? Do new parameters need to be added? How does this increase the time required to resolve refugee placement? If resolution of the refugee integration is significantly prolonged, what new issues might arise in maintaining the health and safety of the refugee and local populations? What is the threshold of time where these new considerations are in play? For example, what policies need to be in place to manage issues such as disease control, childbirth, and education? 

The Report: The UN Commission on Refugees has asked your ICM-RUN team to provide them a 20-page report that considers the factors given in your tasks. Each team should also write a 1 page policy recommendation letter which will be read by the UN Secretary General and the Chief of Migration. 

 

Your ICM submission should consist of a 1 page Summary Sheet, a 1 page letter to the UN, and your solution (not to exceed 20 pages) for a maximum of 22 pages. Note: The appendix and references do not count toward the 22 page limit. 

 

 

The Commission has also provided you with some on-line references that may be helpful: 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911 

 

http://www.iom.int/ 

 

http://iussp2009.princeton.edu/papers/90854 

 

http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49c3646c4d6.html 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/28/world/migrants-refugees-europe-syria.html?_r=0 

 

http://www.who.int/features/qa/88/en/ 

 

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-determinants/migration-and-health/migrant-health-in-the-european-region/migration-and-health-key-issues 

 

https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/protected-persons/refugees-displaced-persons 

 

难民移民政策建模(美国竞赛2016年F题) 

 

随着难民成千上万的移动在欧洲，每天多到达，相当多的关注已经给予难民融合的政策和做法在许多国家和地区。历史告诉我们，人口大规模逃离发生的重大政治和社会动荡和战争的结果。这些危机带来的一组必须谨慎地通过有效的政策来管理独特的挑战。在中东地区发生的事件引起了中东的移民进入避风港的国家在欧洲和亚洲部分地区的大批难民激增，往往通过地中海和成，如土耳其，匈牙利，德国，法国和英国的发展中国家转移。到2015年10月月底，欧洲各国已经从难民收到了超过715000庇护申请。匈牙利荣登排行榜，每10万居民近1,450所有课程，但仅授予那些请求的很小比例（2014年为32％），离开接近千难民每天每10万居民的国家无家可归。欧洲已经建立了每个国家都同意采取难民特定数量，与广大的安置负担躺在法国和德国的配额制度。 

 

难民旅行多条路线 - 从中东到（1）西地中海（2）地中海中部，（3）东地中海，（4）西巴尔干地区，（5）的东部边界，以及（6）阿尔巴尼亚希腊（见这些航线http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911映射出）。每个航线都有不同程度的安全性和便利性，与最流行的路线是东地中海和最危险的，环地中海。已经背负了大多数国家担心自己的能力，为难民如食物，水，住所和医疗保健提供资源。有迹象表明，确定难民如何决定通过该区域移动诸多因素。运输可用性，路线和目的地获得基本需求的安全性是由在这个巨大的迁移每一个人或家庭的考虑。 

 

联合国已经问过你的团队，ICM-RUN（难民分析），以帮助更好地了解的参与促进从原籍国难民的流动成为避险国家的因素。 

 

您的特定的任务： 

 

1.度量难民危机。确定具体的因素，可以启用或抑制难民的安全，高效运行。有个人的属性本身，他们必须采取的航线，运输类型，各国的能力，包括入口点和提供给难民人口资源数量。这第一个任务需要ICM-RUN制定了一系列措施和参数，并证明为什么他们应该被包括在这一危机的分析。 

 

2.流量的难民。创建将纳入难民投影在整个流动问题中提到的六个旅游线路，并考虑运输路线/交通方便，路线安全和国家资源能力的最佳难民运动的典范。可以包括不同的路线，不同的入口点，单个或多个入口点，甚至不同的国家。使用在任务1成立来确定的难民人数，以及速率和必需的入口点，以适应他们的运动的指标。一定要自圆其说 

 

任何新元素已添加到迁移，并解释模型的敏感性这些动态。 

 

3.危机的动力。难民条件可以迅速改变。难民寻求自己和不断变化的政治和文化景观之中的家庭基本必需品。此外，安置，保护和满足这种流动人口容量是动态的，因为最想要的目的地将达到最大容量的最快，创造一个连带效应改变为运动模式的参数。确定随时间变化的环境因素;和显示容量可以如何被并入模型以考虑这些动态元素。什么资源可以预置以及如何他们这些动态的光分配？哪些资源需要优先级，你怎么把你的模型资源的可用性和流量？考虑政府和非政府机构（非政府组织），两者的作用和资源。如何非政府组织纳入更改模型和战略？还要考虑其他难民的目的地，如加拿大，中国和美国的包容性。请问您的型号为这些地区的工作呢？ 

 

4.政策支持难民模型。现在你有一个工作模型，ICM-RUN已被要求参加一个政策战略会议在您的团队被要求写一篇关于你的模型的报告，并提出了一系列政策支持的条件下保证最佳的迁移组最佳模式。您的联合国人权委员会已要求你考虑并优先难民和当地居民的健康和安全。您认为合适的帮助，告知战略政策计划，牢记受影响国家的法律和文化的限制，你可以包含任意数量的参数和注意事项。想想也是的作用和非政府组织（NGO）的行动。 

 

5.外部事件。除了内源性系统性动态，外部事件也极有可能发生，并改变在这些动荡的环境情况的参数，例如，在巴黎的重大恐怖袭击，法国已与叙利亚避难危机，也导致大量在态度的变化和许多欧洲国家的政策有关难民。该事件也引起当地居民的担忧。例如，比利时布鲁塞尔置于锁定巴黎袭击后试图捕捉可能的恐怖分子。 

 

一）什么参数模型可能会移位或在重大外部事件彻底改变？ 

 

二）什么是在邻国难民的运动级联效应？ 

 

三）将如何你推荐移民政策被设计成抵御这些类型的事件？ 

 

6.可扩展性。使用你的模型，展开危机较大规模 - 由10倍是你的模式是不扩展到人口较多的有特点？模型中的更改或哪些参数变得无关紧要时的危机增加了适用范围显着？别新的参数需要被添加？请问这个增至解决难民安置所需要的时间？如果难民融入分辨率显著延长，可能在维持难民和当地居民的健康和安全出现什么新问题？什么是当这些新的因素在起作用时间的门槛？例如，什么样的政策必须到位，以管理，如疾病控制，分娩，和教育问题？ 

 

报告：联合国难民事务委员会已经要求你ICM-RUN团队提供他们认为在您的任务给予的因素有20页的报告。每队也应该写1页政策建议信将由联合国秘书长和迁移的首席读取。 

 

您的ICM提交应包括1页汇总表，一个1页的信给联合国，和您的解决方案（不超过20页）最多为22页。 

 

注：附件和引用不计入22页的限制中。